BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+7 DRAFTKINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card at Russia. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to acquire a lot of money from this week considering it is a more compact card and begins at 10:15am ET. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of 100k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be distributed between all 100 admissions that qualify. I will try to receive my 2nd and 3rd chairs this week if possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those too hard. I’ll probably stick to the very best GPP this week and throw 100 or so entries at the $25k decoration, then I will likely take a few shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to get a great quantity of drama into money games.
With that said, let us get to a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Roxanne Modafferi — $6,900
I really don’t believe there are really no cash locks this week, so I needed to bring a money strategy I use a lot of the time, which can be punting in cash and accepting a loss. I really don’t think Roxy gets the win , but she’s just $6.9k and I think she receives 15-minutes of action. I like the floor which accompanies this and punting with her cheap cost allows us to fit in more of the favorites that are higher with our other five spots. We do not need 6 wins in cash games, so that I don’t believe we will need to even try for it. I enjoy playing money games safer and if I can lock 25-35 points at a reduction from Roxy at her cheap price I am totally ok with that. I always look for 4 wins in money and above 350-400 DK points. That’s my goal weekly. Let everybody else make the mistakes and just shoot for a score that can beat 50% or more of this field.
GPP play of this week — Alistair Overeem — $8,900
This is an all-in fight for GPPs in my opinion and I enjoy Overeem among my top plays of the week. Oleinik took this fight on short notice so that I would be shocked to see this go all 5 rounds. I also believe Overeem will be too quick for him to get takedowns, and Overeem is levels before him in the striking game. The sole shot Oleinik has of winning on the feet would be by landing a haymaker and knocking Overeem out. Or, get a standing entry. Other than those two results, Overeem will smoke him on the feet. In addition, I believe Overeem can work his way back into his toes if he’s removed and the longer Oleinik shoots takedowns the quicker he will gas outside. I like the -175 ITD line which is included with Overeem here and I believe he gets a finish in around 1 or 2. That should provide us close to 100 DK points or even more, and I want that in a lot of my own GPP lineups.
Underdog play of the week — Rafael Fiziev — $7,700
Fiziev is no longer the underdog on the gambling line (-120) but DraftKings salaries don’t change as soon as they are released. We get Fiziev here for 800 cheaper than Mustafaev and he is favored to get the win. I was really impressed by what I saw out of this kid and I agree with all the line motion. I really do think he gets the win , but it is the DK worth that we would like to make certain to get exposure to the weekend. I think he is an excellent play cash games with the present value and I hope to be overweight on him GPPs as well. We have to roster underdogs in our lineups and when we could use a favorite as one of these”underdogs” I am usually on board for that.
Fade of the week — Antonina Shevchenko ($9,300)
Antonina Shevchenko is my fade of the week because of her $9.3k price label. I really do think she has the win here as I said previously, I simply don’t see how she can pay off that salary without a finish. I don’t see her shooting for any takedowns in this game, and I don’t want to rely on her getting knockdown points . Thus, we’re only going to be receiving 0.5 points per significant strike, and the 30-point win bonus when she wins a choice. If that is true, we’d want her to land over 126 sig strikes simply to get more than 10x worth. I really don’t see that being true and I believe she likely scores 80-85 DK points at a decision win. At her salary, that will not win anybody the big $25k. That’s the prize I’m shooting so that is why she is my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link too. I’m 69-41 to get +237.39u (+$23,739) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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